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Restrained optimism among export companies

Export Manager’s Index (EMI) fell by 3.9 units to 58.9 in the third quarter, from 62.8 in the second quarter. The decline in EMI is explained by a sharp fall in the EMI forecast (index for the forward-looking questions). Despite the decline, EMI remains at a high-level well above the 50 mark, indicating that companies have a positive view of export trends.

EMI forecast fell by 7.8 units to 55.1 in the third quarter, from 62.9 in the previous quarter, which is lower than the historical average. Index for all sub-questions, except for expected delivery times, is still well above 50. Despite the decline, export companies are still optimistic. The proportion of companies expecting shorter delivery times over a three-month term rose in the third quarter to 14.2 percent, from 8.6 percent in the previous quarter. The fact that more and more companies expect shorter delivery times for exports indicate that resource utilization in companies is decreasing.

-        The global economy continues to develop steadily, and Swedish export companies benefit from a strong investment boom. Export managers 'index for the third quarter indicates that the optimism among export companies remains, but that it is restrained in three months' term. The decline was stronger than expected, says Business Sweden's Chief Economist Lena Sellgren.

In addition, companies' assessment of profitability in export sales decreased both in the present and in the coming three months. A strong contributing factor to this is that the krona has been strengthened recently.

- The proportion of export companies expecting a three-month increase in market demand decreased in the third quarter, but remains at a high level. However, development differs between the different regions. Index of expected demand from South America increased by 17.5 units to 72.1 in the third quarter, compared with the previous quarter, continues Lena Sellgren.

24 August 2017