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If Crisis Hits

05 July 2017

If Crisis Hits

In the report ”If Crisis Hits” Business Sweden elaborates on three possible geopolitical scenarios and looks at their economic repercussions and implications for Swedish business. Companies’ rapidly increasing demand for this type of analysis stems from an insecurity of where the world is heading, in a situation with a dramatic political scene change in the US, disunity in Europe and advancing regional powers. For now, developments are moving in the wrong direction with increased risk of regional conflict, some with the potential of posing serious global disturbance.

1st scenario: Grey zone conflict in Sweden’s near vicinity

The point of reference in this scenario is Russia’s ambition to regain its standing as superpower and expand its influence around the Baltic Sea and with neighbouring countries. Russia’s determination is put in contrast with the EU’s political inability to counter this challenge.

2nd scenario: Cold war and fragmentation in the Middle East

This scenario builds on the notion that the Middle East’s thousand years of conflict will escalate in a confrontation between the shia and sunni interpretations of islam. The region destabilizes further and new streams of refugees arrive in Europe.

3rd scenario: The US and China – conflict between two superpowers

The outset is a multipolar world, where the US’ economic and military dominance is challenged by regional powers with growing ambitions. When the new US administration withdraws from leadership in the ruling world order, this opens up for a more expansive role for China in the region and globally.

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Lena Sellgren

Chief Economist
+46 703 121 902