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Market Insight April 2018:
Global growth wave levels off

The world economy will see another year of expanding growth in 2018. The expansion will be strongest in North and South America, Africa and the Middle East, while growth in Europe and Asia will taper off.

In Europe, the primary cause will be a slower increase in private consumption in Germany and the United Kingdom, though higher GDP growth in France due to higher growth in exports will partly offset this effect. A normalisation of monetary policy in the eurozone will feed through into lower growth from 2019. In Asia, growth will be slower due to a flatter economic trajectory in China especially, reflecting tighter economic policy and a closer focus on long-term sustainable growth driven by private consumption.

Global economic growth has risen rapidly in the last 12 months, especially in OECD member states, though emerging economies have also posted healthy gains. Spearheading the current expansion are a rebound in investment following a steep downturn after the 2008 financial crisis and strong growth in industrial production. Investment is projected to continue rising, strengthening the global economic upswing in 2018. Indicators of market confidence have levelled off slightly in recent months but remain at high levels. Unemployment, which is already low in many countries, is expected to fall further. Global GDP growth, which was 3.7 percent last year, is expected to reach 3.9 percent in 2018 before easing to 3.7 percent in 2019.

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Date: 26 Apr 2018
Size: 2.7 MB(pdf)